Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 12/12/2012

Daily Analysis
I was expecting a big move yesterday, and a big move we saw today. Market extended its gains today with a sharp rally before giving up some of the gains towards the second half of the session. It was a broad based rally with most sector's participating. We got some nice gains on AAPL and GOOG.  GOOG looks nice with next try over 700 and break of 706 level. The only sectors that didn't participate was Homebuilders (see my note on Homebuilders from yesterday) and Dollar stores on weak earnings from Dollar General (keep an eye on FDO, DG, DLTR for shorts). Today's action makes me BULLISH to NEUTRAL and if we can hold the lows of the day today into FOMC day tomorrow, I'll feel a lot better about the market. I am mostly into cash and will be watching tomorrow's action from sidelines (hate FOMC days).  We gapped up nicely just around my 143.09 (YELLOW LINE) and never closed lower on first three candles. This gave me an indication that this would not be another gap and fade day. I added few long positions which turned into big winners. I closed a lot of swing positions today just to book the profits. Last few days I had a few nice gainers turn into flat trades, so i wanted to make sure I don't repeat the same mistake :)

SPY support or resistance levels.
SPY resistance -     143.55, 144.49. Watch the purple trendline.
SPY support -  143.09, 142.90, 142.25, 141.68, 140.40 139.05, 138.50, 137.55, 136.66

Sector watch -
Technology - strong
Financials - strong. Citigroup is resting after a big move last week. It seems set for a move up eventually.
Homebuilders - Weak
Materials - Strong.

Trades today -
Lots of them so I'll just focus on swing positions:)
The highlight was MCP short at 11.46 and closed at 10.85  in less than 10mins.
CLF - Closed long at 31.98 (still holding long April $33 options which a nicely in money).
PAY - Closed long position at 33.15. +1.40  [Earnings on 12/13]
DVN - Closed for -0.50 loss
YOKU - Closed 1/2 at 15.60 (+1.43).
GMCR - Closed 39.40 (+1.90)
JOY - Out flat.
GS - Closed at 119 from 117.25.
Closed AAPL, GOOG day trade long positions.
PHM short - Holding from 16.44.

Swing Trade update -
TNGO - Still holding long.
TSLA - Behaving well. Still holding 1/2.
YHOO -Full position.
CLF - April 30 options.
YOKU - 1/2 pos from 14.17
LULU - Entries 73 and 72.20.

Trade ideas: -
NEU - Range break.
SKUL - Bottoming pattern.


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