Daily Analysis -
Battle between the two opposing themes continues. Today better than expected US economic news (jobs and retail sales) trumped the sharp drop on Nikkei last night. I expect this battle to continue for next week or two till Fed statement later in the month. We would then have more clarity (hopefully?) on Tapering and that would decide the direction for the market. For now I'm basically day trading the market. Don't want to stuck in swing trades with these volatile movements in both directions.
I was expecting some bounce in USDJPY which came nicely. I tried USDJPY long at 94.50 once but got stopped out and reentered this morning at 94.20 level. My near term target on USDJPY is 97 level with stop at breakeven. I was also expecting a bounce in IYR albeit from a lower level but SPY basically bounced from 50sma instead of filling the gap again. IYR ended up almost 3% on the day. IYR is coming into resistance at 68-68.25 level. Would like to see some consolidation or retest of the lows. I did take TOL long trade on early market bounce and rode it up for a nice gain.
Trade Ideas -
Stalking for TSLA short on market weakness. I would use 101 as my stop. If it closes below 20sma it should have a quick drop to 88 then to 50sma.
Coffee plays looking good. SBUX, GMCR