Friday, January 4, 2013

Nice weekly gains to start the year!

Had some nice gains to end the first week of the year (hope you had too). Lots of breakouts as the SPX closed at the highest levels in over 4 years on a decent jobs report this morning. Note it was the highest close, not the new high which was 1474 in September this year. Imagine where the indexes would be if AAPL was over $700 as it was in September. Either way, I still think market has run up too much too fast so its time for some rest if we need to make strong move up. That doesn't mean breakouts won't happen on a small pullback, so always keep an eye on nice setups. Checkout the McClellan Oscillator reading on the day and make your own opinions about the market conditions -

Meanwhile, I had some next gains during the week. Even setups posted last night saw some very nice gains today. ZNGA up 9+%, GRPN up almost 3% and Zillow had a late day breakout into gapfill gaining about 3.5% as well. Some of the older setups did pretty well, with TNGO finally waking up posted 3.5% gains. KKD, the one I sold yesterday for 10% gains, was up another 10% today (what a miss!!). EGLE ended the day with 25% but at one point was up almost 50% on the day. UPL was up 4.5% and now is pretty close to the channel top. If we break this channel top this would easily be in 20s sometime in January. SD had a nice run today before giving some back. I'm still holding TNGO, Z, UPL, ZNGA, SD and 1/2 EGLE going into next week. These breakouts in small caps is generally a sign of  January effect and money flowing into the stock market.

Some of my large cap positons did fairly well as well (with the exception of AAPL). I closed GS even though i think it may have some more room to run. I would take 10% gains anyday on a large cap stock. C finally achieved my first target of $42+ (remember this post - Citigroup - Buy on a devleoping pattern) but i had closed this one too early back in 40s.  I still think it sees 50s sometime this year.

DVN and OXY finally getting some momentum as well. CYH continues to move up steadily. FSLR was down on a downgrade (gives a chance for shorts to cover), but i think its giving an entry. I have a IRA position in RIG (added a year ago), which has nice run last couple days on settlement news.

I started some short positions, again more as a hedge than seeing a lot of downside in the market. FIO looks like decent short setup. I also took CMG short at 300.20 (see chart below) in what i think may be a bear flag if it plays out.

Here are some charts to ponder over the weekend -

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