Sunday, December 9, 2012

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 12/09/2012

Daily Analysis
Market continues to inch higher even in the wake of uncertainty on Fiscal Cliff talks. It looked a little suspect to start the day on Friday but ended the day pretty strong. Gap up and fades always get me a little suspicious because these are usually signs of reversal trends, but the fact that we came back in the end is a bullish signal. What  makes me suspicous of this strength is weakness in Technology led by AAPL and GOOG. These two need to reverse soon if we want a broader rally. However Financials and Energy are acting very strong and are likely to lead us higher. Finally, we need a close over 143 on decent volume to be full-on bullish on this market and i stick with first target on upside on 147.65 if we can break and hold 143. Have a feeling that everybody is gearing up for Christmas Rally and thats why we are not seeing major panic. We may continue this pattern unless we see some really really bad news come out of Washington. My trading strategy - BUY LONG but STAY ALERT!!!

SPY support or resistance levels.
SPY resistance -   142.90, 143.09, 143.55, 144.40
SPY support - 142.25, 141.68, 140.40 139.05, 138.50, 137.55, 136.66

Sector watch -
Technology - Very weak on Friday. Needs some strength soon.
Financials – Finacnials have bounced back very nicely. JPM, BAC and C going well. GS should see strength soon.
Energy - My favorite for now, lot of stocks showing strength of bottoming patterns. Even Coal stocks getting a nice bounce.

Trades today - 
I was a  little impatient with my trades on Friday. Gap higher and fade got me to close a lot of trades earlier.
MNST- Entered log 52.12. Closed b/e. Howecer it finally broke higher late in the day. Real b/o is 53.
FSLR - Closed my 1/2 pos  at 30.10.
ESRX - Out b/e from my swing. This had strong close as well.
SRPT stopped out at 26. Loss of 3.90. Thats why I hate biotech stocks :)
PAY closed 1/2 position for $1.80 in profits. Used some of the profits to buy $38 Dec calls at $0.20 (Earnings lottery)
CVC - Entered and closed b/e. Looks nice.
NFX - Closed for +0.60 from 25.11.
YOKU - Long from 14.17. We are near the strong support area.

Swing Trade update -
TNGO - Still holding long. Looked much better today. It needs volume and needs to break 13.43 area.
TSLA - Was up nicely this morning but reversed back to 34 area. Still holding 1/2.
YHOO - Back to full position.
CLF - Holding from 29.25 and added more April 30 options.
PAY - Holding 1/2 from 31.75.
DVN - Holding from 52.98.
Old ideas-
CIEN - Continues to do well.

Trade ideas: -
MNST - Nice bull flag. Watch for break over 53.
JOY - Coal stock showing strength again. This one should go soon.


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