Monday, December 10, 2012

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 12/11/12

Daily Analysis
Here's my note from blogpost on SPY -
Market is stuck in tight range last few days. We have made ~5% move since lows on Nov 16th, so its healthy that we take a rest here to digest the gains. That said, the action still makes me a little nervous this time around. Market leaders continue to stay weak. Today it was PCLN's turn to come crashing down on a downgrade. It lost 5% on the day. AAPL tried to bounce a few times but each rally was sold into. Also, lot of breakouts that worked in the morning ended up failing by late afternoon. Till we see bounces that hold nicely, its perhaps advisable to take quick gains (easier said than done). The 2 levels to watch are shown by YELLOW (~143) and RED (~140.40) line. If we close above YELLOW line i think we start Christmas rally. However, if we dip below the RED, we may be in for nasty selloff. Lot of people are expecting Christmas rally, if the market does not move in the right direction we may see rapid unwinding of positions. Watch the action closely and manage your positions accordingly. I think we see this move tomorrow or Wednesday (FOMC day).

SPY support or resistance levels.
SPY resistance - 142.90, 143.09, 143.55, 144.40
SPY support - 142.25, 141.68, 140.40 139.05, 138.50, 137.55, 136.66

Sector watch -
Technology - Very weak on Friday. Needs some strength soon.
Financials – Finacnials have bounced back very nicely. JPM, BAC and C going well. GS should see strength soon.
Energy - My favorite for now, lot of stocks showing strength of bottoming patterns. Even Coal stocks getting a nice bounce.

Trades today - 
MNST- Entered long 53. Stock broke out nicely but faded and took my stop at 52.80 (Nice idea but bad trade)
LULU - Entered long at 73. Still holding with stop of 72. I like the pattern.
AAPL - Long 530.50. Had a nice run up to 538 and then reversed. Stopped out almost b/e.
JOY - Long 57.90. Bummed that it was the only stock that had small gains. Other had nice rally.
PII - Entered short at $80.28

Swing Trade update -
TNGO - Still holding long.
TSLA -  Behaving well. Still holding 1/2.
YHOO - Back to full position.
CLF - Holding from 29.25 and added more April 30 options. Nice 4.5% gain today.
PAY - Holding 1/2 from 31.75.
DVN - Holding from 52.98.
YOKU - We got the bounce i was expecting. Still holding long from 14.17.
GMCR - Holding long from 37.50.
Trade ideas: -
QIHU - Long over 25.56
RVBD - Watch the 18.36 area.
EXPR - We had this on watchlist in 12s before it spiked on earnings. Lets watch the break of bull flag.


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