Monday, December 17, 2012
SPY Roadmap Update - 12/17/2012
Last week on SPY roadmap post I highlighted the two possible scenarios after we hit the key pivot on 12th December. I had a bias towards the bullish scenario. This seems to be playing out perfectly so far. We have a nice pullback to 50SMA on Friday and bounce. Today we had a nice run off the bounce and closed 100 pts higher on the DOW. Would be good to have some small range bound days below the purple line before we resume the move higher to retest the 2012 highs at 147-148 level.
I picked up some positions on the SPY pullback which worked out very nicely today. C, BRKB, GOOG, SHLD, YOKU, KKD worked nicely. CLF just taking a rest here after almost 20% move last few days. My shorts ofcourse didn't turn out as well. I covered PHM for -$1 and after PII bounced from $79 level, i covered it almost flat.
Basic materials need some pullback after a nice run last week. I'll be picking some on slightest pullback. NUE, X and STLD look good.
AAPL Bottom? Tried picking some up on Friday but lost money. Picked it up again this morning at 510.80. I was willing to add more if it dropped to $490 level but it bounced from $501 level. Friday drop came from reaction to slow China launch, but AAPL announced over the weekend that they sold over 2m iphones over 3 days. I had a feeling this would scare some of the bears to start a rally again. I think AAPL selloff is way overdone and all the hedge funds who had been selling in order to realize the capital gains at lower tax rate would start jumping back again. Agreed there is some chatter about lowering the orders on suppliers but it could be on the back of an expected blow out Q4 quarter. We'll see how it turns out.
Here's an updated chart on SPY -
Again.... TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, NOT WHAT YOU THINK :)