Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/1/2013

Daily Analysis -
Choppy range bound session today. We are stuck were stuck between the first support and resistance for most part of the session. If you just traded based on that there was some easy money to be made. If we continue in this small range bound sideways consolidation (which we likely are going to be), we could see a nice pop coming soon. I still think we are likely to see news highs soon.

SPY levels
Resistance - 150.20, 150.70, 151.60
Support - 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long - SWKS, JCP, KSS, TNGO, YPF, NVD, TLT, FXI
Short - RKUS, OPEN
Added -VALE at 19.70, ARNA at 8.12
Closed - BRCM (stopped out for $1.80 loss)

• Entered VALE long this morning. It got an analyst upgrade and the chart looked nice with 50sma right under it.
• ARNA entered long on  oversold conditions. Got a nice pop on the day.
• BRCM got stopped out at 33.
• SWKS got nice earnings pop. Still holding.
• KSS nice continuation
• FXI still holding the pattern
• TLT got a nice pop.

Some setups give out in last few days worked very well. SIMO had a huge pop.
Still looking for volume to enter ELLI long.


Sectors to watch -
Financials - Looks strong with GS leading. C and JPM holding nicely.
Techs - Big news was FB earnings. It had a huge gap down but recovered to close flat.
Retail - Still a mixed bag.


Trade Ideas -

VALE - nice volume pop. Look for continuation
GMCR - Nice pattern forming.
MMC - Looks ready for breakout to new highs.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 1/31/2013

Daily Analysis -
So we  finally got some volatility back on the market on FOMC statement which essentially was a non-event with no new news coming out. We saw some selling towards the end of the day but no panic selling yet. For now I think we see a continued pullback tomorrow but I expect a bounce back soon. I would continue to add long term positions on this pullback and looking for bounce around 148-149 level.

SPY levels
Resistance - 151.60, 150.70, 150.20
Support - 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long - SWKS, JCP, KSS, TNGO, BRCM, YPF, NVDA (added yesterday at 12.35)
Short - RKUS, OPEN
Added - TLT at 116.60, FXI at 41.58, UPL at 18.20
Closed - RIMM

• Got lucky my near perfect  timing on RIMM exit. Exited the trade for +$1 about 1/2 hr before the BB10 event began this morning.
• SWKS has nice earnings after hours and got a 12% bounce. Lets hope it holds up the gains.
• BRCM got a minor bounce.
• JCP and TNGO holding the pattern, still looking for a breakout/continuation.
• OPEN dropped nicely on the downgrade this morning confirming the bearish divergences.
• KSS continues to move steadily. Looking for a big gap fill above $46+.
• Took a day trade on AMZN short the morning. Entered around $278.30 level and exited at $272.80

Sectors to watch -
Financials - No real action.
Techs -No real action today. FB dropped on earnings after hours.
Retail - Still a mixed bag.
Semi's - Watch the sector tomorrow on strong SWKS and QCOM earnings

Trade Ideas -

ELLI - Looking for a tradeable bounce here. Looking for volume to come in first.

 MYL - Nice pattern forming. Keep it on the watchlist.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 1/30/2013

Daily Analysis -
Market continued to move higher today again on low volume following the overall trend last few days. We opened lower but immediately turned green on SPY and continued higher for rest of the day. We hit the next resistance level of 150.70 that I had given out, which is also where we close the day. Tomorrow may be the volume day for the market with FOMC statement on interest rates. Lets watch it closely.

SPY levels
Resistance - 151.60
Support - 150.70, 150.20, 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long - SWKS, JCP, KSS, TNGO, BRCM, RIMM
Short - RKUS, OPEN

• JCP finally got the spike. It closed the day up +9%. I closed 1/3 of my long position at 21. Looking for a move towards $23 level with stop just under $20.
• KSS also continues to move steadily. I really like it over $46 range where it has huge gap fill.
• My short term trade on YPF worked out well as well. Closed the day at +11%.
• RKUS short worked well. Covered 1/2 this morning for +1.35 from 24.50. 
• OPEN short holding for a loss from 54.90. Stop at $56.
• Took RIMM long at 15.25 on the bounce. Have a had good luck with the stock so fingers crossed.
• Got stopped out on GMCR today at 43.80 level. Closed the trade for $2+ gains. 
• Closed TSLA trade for +$4 gains. I think this may have more upside but waiting for some consolidation.

Sectors to watch -
Financials - Still look to be in digestion mode.
Techs - Bounce on AAPL today. FB and LNKD looked really strong.
Retail -Mixed bag.
Semi's - Watching SWKS, QCOM and BRCM

Trade Ideas -
Still like PANL and SIMO from yesterday. Here are some trade ideas for tomorrow.

NVDA - A Dark horse for Smartphone/Tablet play?

Most people know of Nvidia for its Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) where it has over 60% market share and is designed into the latest Macs. Not many however realize that it has made significant inroads into the mobile space with Apps processors designed for Tablets and Smartphone markets. It has had reasonable success claiming about 1/3 market share of non-iPad tablet sales. Tegra 3 which was its lead product for 2012 has been designed into Google Nexus 7 and Microsoft Surface. Nvidia announced Tegra4 at CES earlier this month. The leaders ofcourse in mobile apps processor market are Qualcomm with its Snapdragon line, Apple with its A5/A6 processors used in iPhone/iPads and Samsung with its Exynos processors used for Galaxy tablets. While competition is tough, its a growing market and Nvidia is expected to play significant role especially in the low to mid tier of the market with tier of OEMs that would focus on products for emerging markets.

The chart pattern on NVDA is turning bullish going into the earnings on Feb 14. While Q4 earnings are not typically the best, there may be likelihood of some surprise in the forward guidance given the growing traction with its new products. Options activity on the stock has also been very bullish last few days pointing to strong earnings. My first target is 13.15 and over that is should easily see $14-$15 in short term.

Here's the daily chart and today's option activity -

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 1/29/2013

Daily Analysis -
Yet another flattish market day. We continue to consolidate around the SPY 150 area. Market now just seems to be waiting for a catalyst to move. With key earnings out of the way, the catalyst could be FOMC meeting and jobless claims later in the week. This flat market however offers nice opportunity to trade on the setups. Some of the setups I highlighted in my weekly watchlist already triggered including BIDU, NVDA and YPF. Look for continuation.


SPY levels
Resistance -  150.20, 150.70
Support - 149, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings

SWKS, JCP, KSS, TNGO, BRCM, TSLA, GMCR

I made couple trades today only.  Took NFLX short on the break 3rd break of 170, which worked out perfectly for $7+ gains. Also took RKUS short at 24.50. Still holding my RKUS short positions.

Sectors to watch -

Financials - Still look to be in digestion mode.
Techs - Bounce on AAPL today. FB and LNKD looked really strong.
Retail -Mixed bag.
Semi's - Watching SWKS, QCOM and BRCM


Trade Ideas -
Here are some trade ideas for tomorrow. These are for short term trades only, i won't swing them -

Cheap stocks on watchlist

As the market continues to hold at the top I'm seeing a lot of beaten down stocks making nice pops on decent volume. Again, signs of a bullish market and risk on investing. Here's a list of some cheap stocks that you may want to keep an eye on for quick trades-

Watchlist for week of 1/28/2013

Good idea to remain cautious going into this week. Still holding some long positions which have been doing good including GMCR, DECK, KSS, SWKS, TNGO and JCP. I also started a short position in OPEN on Friday. Cclosed some of my swing positions last week going into the weekend to lighten up on my long holdings. Unless we see some pullback in the market, any new positions this week likely will be short term trades for me. Here's a list of stocks that I would be watching closely -

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 01/25/2013

Daily Analysis -
Today was an interesting day - a little different from last few days. Last few days we have been opening little lower and have a continuous move higher throughout the day, which is a very bullish sign for the market. While the first part of the day followed a picture book pattern, we saw some selling coming in the second half of the day. While I don't foresee a major pullback in the market, the fact that we reversed from a key SPY 150 level and has VXX stay positive throughout the day, could mean a small pullback is in the offing in the market. We have a reversal candle on major indexes so watchout for confirmation tomorrow. I've been a long AAPL bull, but today's action got me. Looked very very weak. Watch it closely next few days on tradeable bounce. Here's an updated SPY chart.

SPY levels
Resistance -  150.10, 150.70
Support - 149, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings into next week

SWKS, JCP, KSS, TNGO, BRCM, TSLA, GMCR
Closed some of my swing positions today to lighten up SD (+15%), RIMM (+50%), CF (+13) .

Sectors to watch -

Financials - In digestion mode.
Techs -Mixed bag.
Retail - I like the relative strength in retail. Still long KSS, JCP. May look to enter LULU, UA.
Semi's - Weak on AAPL earnings. Holding BRCM, SWKS. CRUS had decent earning a/h.
Fertilizers - AGU, CF, MOS,  MON all acting very strong. Closed my CF position today.

Trade Ideas -
 Here are some trade ideas for tomorrow -

EPAM - Over 21 could make a run

GMCR- Has a large gap to fill. Target $48-$49 eventually.

JCP - Have a large position in this one. Over 19.60 should take this into 20s.

DECK - Still stuck in this wedge

 OPEN - 2 reversal candles. Showing Bearish divergence. Could be a decent short idea.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 01/22/2013

Daily Analysis -
Another nice up week on decent earnings from Financials. We continued to move higher on good economic data on Thursday. Even not so spectacular earnings from INTC, C and BAC could keep the market down. The next leg of move higher needs to come from the Techs. Financials have had a very nice run and keep the market momentum going but without support from Techs, it may be tough to drive the market to all time highs. Upcoming week should be key with earnings from leading Tech giants including IBM, AAPL and GOOG. If Techs can show some strength we should easily move into 150s, if not, i would start thinking about digestion/pullback time going into Feb Debt ceiling talk. So, watch the earnings and reaction to the earnings this week.


SPY levels
Resistance -   149, 150.70
Support - 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings into next week

CF, RIMM, SWKS, JCP, UPL, TNGO, BRCM, DECK, TSLA, GMCR

Sectors to watch -

Financials - Mixed bag now. GS and JPM continue higher. C and BAC lower.
Techs - Key sector to watch this week. AAPL, IBM and GOOG.
Retail - I like the relative strength in retail last couple trading sessions. Pick you name here.
Semi's - Will be watching AAPL earnings closely. IMO AAPL should help QCOM, BRCM, SWKS, CRUS.
Fertilizers - AGU, CF, MOS,  MON all acting very strong.

Trade Ideas -

Watchlist for 01/18/2013

Sorry guys, feeling little under the weather tpday. Instead of long blog post I'm just posting some setups for tomorrow.

SPY Roadmap update 01/17/2013

SPY Roadmap update

About a month ago I had done a post providing potential path for SPY (SPY Roadmap update). So far we have been tracking very nicely to the trajectory I had identified. We hit the key 148.11 level (overshot a little but closed below) where we may see a potential double top resistance. Where do we head next? I think we're ready for small pullback soon probably until 145 level before we start our next leg. The pullback is likely to be shallow unless ofcourse the big AAPL earnings disappoint and it takes the who market down. The chances of that are small, but we should work with probabilities here. I still say we see SPY 150 level before mid-Feb debt ceiling talks when we see a more serious pullback.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 01/17/2013

Daily Analysis
We continue to grind higher on the markets. Action today was similar to yesterday with gap down at open and drift higher on small volume rest of the day. This morning we had GS and JPM earnings. While GS earnings were stellar, JPM's were pretty good. Despite that we saw pretty small gains on the S&P. Story of the day was near 4% bounce on AAPL which also lead semi stocks  higher. I expect continuation of the trend tomorrow unless the economic data in the morning is way out of line. I still want to caution you guys that we may see sharp but shallow pullback soon, so keep taking profits in this ride up unless we zoom past 148.11 and hold nicely. We should then see 150s soon.

I took 4 trades an hour into trading session. 3 from the watchlist below.  I also took PANL long at 26.85, BRCM at 34.20 and IBM at 192.40. I also added CBS long at 37.87 (i'll come to that in a min). PANL, BRCM and IBM all opened in red along with the market and turned green quickly. I saw decent volume coming in so took the trades. I'm holding all 3 positions overnight. Late in the day I also added GNRC at 35.90. It has a strong breakout pattern as well.

I took CBS long because there was decent January $40 call activity in the stock last couple days. This meant there was potentially an event/announcement in play since earnings are not until mid-Feb. And rightly so, there was an announcement after hours with company announcing turining their outdoor advertising business into REIT, driving the stock 9% higher after hours. Nice $3 gain within a day if the gains hold into morning session tomorrow.

JCP and KSS had flat day. Got burnt on ANN yet again. ANN is banned from my trading list now.
DECK had a down day, apparently on CROX announcement that they didn't have a good holiday season. Go figure, people don;t see the difference between Crocs and  Uggs in winter season. Anyways, still holding 1/2 position with stops just over my entry point at 36.80.

RIMM had a nice pop in the morning as well. Still looks strong.

CF had a decent. Holding with stop at $215 which is above my entry point.


SPY levels
Resistance -  147.20 (we need to break this soon), 148.10
Support - 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Sectors to watch -
Financials - Strong on GS and JPM earnings.
Technology - Bounce in AAPL today. Watching semi's tomorrow.. Here's a chart for SMH, which looks ripe for b/o. Note - INTC annouces after hours so watch for strength/weakness on INTC for overall strength in SMH.

Trade Ideas -
I called the bounce in AAPL yesterday and recommended BRCM, which worked out fairly well. BRCM now has a nice flag on daily. I think there may be more juice in the lemon. I'm looking for position in SWKS as well. CRUS and QCOM could be other interesting plays.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 01/16/2013

Daily Analysis
In yesterday's note I mentioned we might see some range expansion today. We did see wider range in the market with a gap down and a slow move up all day, forming a nice bullish engulfing candle on the SPY. Action definitely was Bullish going in to key market day tomorrow. Both GS and JPM have earnings before the market open. Financials have been leaders in this last bull rally, so the earnings from these two companies should define the action for tomorrow. I closed some of the long positions into close today to de-risk my portfolio and if we gap up tomorrow, may close some others. We are nearing the 148.11 area which was 2012 high for S&P, so expect some resistance there.

Had nice run in some of my holdings today -
SPLK - Up almost 7% of the day. I closed my position for nice $4+ gains.
DECK - Up almost 7% as well. I closed 1/2 pos for $4 gains. Holding 1/2 to see if we can break the wedge and head to 200sma at $45 level.
ARNA - Up 5% today. Closed my position at 10.80 from low 9s.
UPL - Up 3.5% today. Holding from 18.25 level.

Closed my position in Z for nice gains as well.

JCP and KSS had a nice day as well. My b/e on JCP is 19.40 level and KSS at 42.05.

RIMM had an inside day. Holding with stops just below $14.
CF down day. Holding with stop at $215 which is above my entry point.

I was stopped out on YELP at b/e. It tanked on FB annoucement.

Added to ANN at 32.80.


SPY levels
Resistance -  147.16, 148.10
Support - 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Sectors to watch -
Financials - Seem to be digestion mode. Pullback looks healthy so far.
Technology - Still looks very weak. If the market wants to push higher Tech has to recover.
Retailers -Got a very nice bounce day. KSS, M, JCP all seeing great action. Look for follow-thru.

Trade Ideas -
I'm expecting a bounce in Techs soon led by AAPL. If we start to see the bounce, i may enter AAPL or one of the derivatives like QCOM or BRCM. Here are some interesting charts for tomorrow.

BRCM- Basing nicely below the long term trend line. B/o coming soon. Use 20day as stop. One of the AAPL suppliers so should see bounce of AAPL bounces.

DECK - Look for continuation.

PANL - Looks like a decent bounce play.

 IBM -  Looks set for a bounce. But earnings later in the week.