http://alphascanner.com/content/images/marketstructure.png
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Understanding Market Structure
Someone shared this nice infographic with me.
http://alphascanner.com/content/images/marketstructure.png
http://alphascanner.com/content/images/marketstructure.png
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 3/20/2013
Daily Analysis -
Another down day but strong pullback in last hour. Market sold off early part of the day but we got a bounce off the 20sma on SPY. We closed above 154.20 so difficult to predict the action next few days. Still difficult to be Bull or a Bear in this market. Continue to watch the action closely. UUP is forming a nice bull flag on the daily. I expect it to break the flag and move towards 23 area. Meanwhile, GLD continued move higher. My target on GLD is 158 area which coincides with the top range of the channel. Copper continued its slide which does not bode well for equities.
Some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 155.30, 156.09, 156.70
Support - 154.20, 153.60, 152.92, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149
Holdings
Long - ARNA, 1/2 VXX (23.70), BBRY (13.15/14.78), AAPL 1/2 at 428.8, FSLR (27.08), DOG (30.94), CWH (22.10)
Short -
Added - 1/2 AAPL at 449
Closed -
Trade Ideas -
Another down day but strong pullback in last hour. Market sold off early part of the day but we got a bounce off the 20sma on SPY. We closed above 154.20 so difficult to predict the action next few days. Still difficult to be Bull or a Bear in this market. Continue to watch the action closely. UUP is forming a nice bull flag on the daily. I expect it to break the flag and move towards 23 area. Meanwhile, GLD continued move higher. My target on GLD is 158 area which coincides with the top range of the channel. Copper continued its slide which does not bode well for equities.
Some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 155.30, 156.09, 156.70
Support - 154.20, 153.60, 152.92, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149
Holdings
Long - ARNA, 1/2 VXX (23.70), BBRY (13.15/14.78), AAPL 1/2 at 428.8, FSLR (27.08), DOG (30.94), CWH (22.10)
Short -
Added - 1/2 AAPL at 449
Closed -
- 1/2 SRPT at 34.25 (+3.50)
- MELI at 95 (~+5)
- BIDU long at 84 (loss of 2)
- Stopped on CLF at 21 (-3.50)
- Added 1/2 VXX in the morning and sold it at 22.53.
- AMZN covered 1/2 at 254.50 (+5)
Trade Ideas -
Monday, March 18, 2013
Daily Analysis and Trade Ideas for 3/19/2013
Daily Analysis -
Finally got volatility back in the market on Cypress news. While the futures were down big last night on the news, the day seemed more bullish to neutral. Market still is acting very resilient. After a huge gap down in the morning we basically followed a gradual grind higher again before the last hour minor selloff. Hard to be bull or bear in the market for next few days. The levels I'll watching closely are 154.20 (low of the day) and 156. If we close below 154.20, we're likely to see more downside to fill the gap at 152.92 and over 156 we may renew the grind higher to new highs. What worries me little bit is move in Copper (JJC) today. It had a 3% down day to close below last September lows. Copper is usually a leading indicator but this could be yet another anomaly of divergences we've been seeing since early part of this year. Dollar continues to act strong with renewed concerns in Euro zone. GLD and SLV safe haven trade may be back in play. Finally, AAPL had a nice run today clearing the 452 resistance. It now has potential to run up to 50sma at 466 and over that to January lows of 484.
Some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 155.30, 156.09, 156.70
Support - 154.20, 153.25, 152.92, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70), BBRY (13.15/14.78), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10), AAPL 1/2 at 428.8, FSLR (27.08), DOG (30.94), SRPT 1/2 (30.75), CWH (22.10)
Short - AMZN short at 259.20, looking for 255 level.
Added -BIDU long at 86.10
Closed -
Trade Ideas -
Finally got volatility back in the market on Cypress news. While the futures were down big last night on the news, the day seemed more bullish to neutral. Market still is acting very resilient. After a huge gap down in the morning we basically followed a gradual grind higher again before the last hour minor selloff. Hard to be bull or bear in the market for next few days. The levels I'll watching closely are 154.20 (low of the day) and 156. If we close below 154.20, we're likely to see more downside to fill the gap at 152.92 and over 156 we may renew the grind higher to new highs. What worries me little bit is move in Copper (JJC) today. It had a 3% down day to close below last September lows. Copper is usually a leading indicator but this could be yet another anomaly of divergences we've been seeing since early part of this year. Dollar continues to act strong with renewed concerns in Euro zone. GLD and SLV safe haven trade may be back in play. Finally, AAPL had a nice run today clearing the 452 resistance. It now has potential to run up to 50sma at 466 and over that to January lows of 484.
Some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 155.30, 156.09, 156.70
Support - 154.20, 153.25, 152.92, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70), BBRY (13.15/14.78), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10), AAPL 1/2 at 428.8, FSLR (27.08), DOG (30.94), SRPT 1/2 (30.75), CWH (22.10)
Short - AMZN short at 259.20, looking for 255 level.
Added -BIDU long at 86.10
Closed -
Trade Ideas -
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 3/14/2013
Daily Analysis -
Slow grind higher continues across the board. All 3 major indexes ended slightly positive on the day on the heels of strong Retail spending this morning. Dow has has had 9 green days streak now. Last time it did this was back in 1996. It almost seems the markets weren't surprised by the data since market turned only modest gains. Divergence with the Dollar continues. UUP hit my upside target of 22.64. In normal conditions, this run in UUP would've caused the market to tumble but we are not seeing any signs of weakness yet. So, lets continue to trade what we see and be nimble in our trades.
Some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 156.09, 156.70
Support - 155.20, 154.65, 153.25, 152.86, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70), 1/2 BBRY (13.15), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10), AAPL 1/2 at 428.8, FSLR (27.08)
Short -
Added -
Day traded SPWR (+0.10), Z (flat)
Trade Ideas -
Slow grind higher continues across the board. All 3 major indexes ended slightly positive on the day on the heels of strong Retail spending this morning. Dow has has had 9 green days streak now. Last time it did this was back in 1996. It almost seems the markets weren't surprised by the data since market turned only modest gains. Divergence with the Dollar continues. UUP hit my upside target of 22.64. In normal conditions, this run in UUP would've caused the market to tumble but we are not seeing any signs of weakness yet. So, lets continue to trade what we see and be nimble in our trades.
Some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 156.09, 156.70
Support - 155.20, 154.65, 153.25, 152.86, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70), 1/2 BBRY (13.15), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10), AAPL 1/2 at 428.8, FSLR (27.08)
Short -
Added -
- 1/2 BBRY at 14.78(now full position again)
- DOG 30.94
- STWD - 27.88
- SRPT 30.75
Day traded SPWR (+0.10), Z (flat)
Trade Ideas -
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Commodities, Currencies and Equities - What gives?
I've talked about divergences in commodities, currencies and equities
since February because i've been noticing markets have not followed usual correlation trends. Here are some charts that I've been following for some
time. Not sure if this is setting a long term trend change in correlations across markets or its a short term anomaly. My intuition says its the later since drop in commodity prices especially Copper since its usually a good leading indicator for macroeconomic growth.
Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 3/13/2013
Daily Analysis -
Signs of weakness in the market today but this seems to be healthy pullback so far. No signs of aggressive selling or panic. SPY support 155.20 held nicely. I still feel this pullback is very temporary and we may see new highs on SPY soon. That said, this Friday is quadruple witching day, so we should see far more activity in the market and the action is little hard to predict. I'm very short term focused for now (which I have been for over couple weeks now), just swing trading for 1-2 days and day trading for most part. I'm watching the ascending wedge on SPY on 30min chart. If we break lower, we should see 152.90 gapfill, which is also a nice support area.
Here are some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 156.70
Support - 155.20, 154.65, 153.25, 152.86, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70), 1/2 BBRY (13.15), , MCP (6.01), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10), AAPL 1/2 at 428.80
Short -
Added - FSLR 27.08
Closed - NFLX covered at 181.40 (flat), MBI (at 12.55 +0.10), 1//2 BBRY at 15.10 (~+2), AAPL 1/2 at 432.
Day traded SPWR (+0.10), Z (flat)
Trade Ideas -
FSLR over 27.90 has a gap fill.
SPWR nice bull flag
BRKR nice bull flag
SNTS wants to go higher. Nice volume today.
Signs of weakness in the market today but this seems to be healthy pullback so far. No signs of aggressive selling or panic. SPY support 155.20 held nicely. I still feel this pullback is very temporary and we may see new highs on SPY soon. That said, this Friday is quadruple witching day, so we should see far more activity in the market and the action is little hard to predict. I'm very short term focused for now (which I have been for over couple weeks now), just swing trading for 1-2 days and day trading for most part. I'm watching the ascending wedge on SPY on 30min chart. If we break lower, we should see 152.90 gapfill, which is also a nice support area.
Here are some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 156.70
Support - 155.20, 154.65, 153.25, 152.86, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70), 1/2 BBRY (13.15), , MCP (6.01), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10), AAPL 1/2 at 428.80
Short -
Added - FSLR 27.08
Closed - NFLX covered at 181.40 (flat), MBI (at 12.55 +0.10), 1//2 BBRY at 15.10 (~+2), AAPL 1/2 at 432.
Day traded SPWR (+0.10), Z (flat)
Trade Ideas -
FSLR over 27.90 has a gap fill.
SPWR nice bull flag
BRKR nice bull flag
SNTS wants to go higher. Nice volume today.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 3/11/2013
Daily Analysis -
We continue to move higher slowly and steadily. Even the bad economic news from China last nigt wasn't enough to dither the indexes moving higher. SPY seems to be headed for new all time highs at 156.70. Its possible we may see a small pullback soon but we should definitely see new highs soon. I have high side target of 158-160 on SPY. Also watching the ascending trendline on 10min chart. Break of this could trendline could bring meaningful pullback but till then good idea to continue to play longs. Meanwhile, AAPL seems to have found a bottom. We broke key short term 435 resistance level. I have a short term target of 20sma on AAPL, which also coincides with the top end of descending wedge we've been in this downtrend.
Here are some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 156.70
Support - 155.20, 154.65, 153.25, 152.86, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70, BBRY (13.15), MBI (12.45), MCP (6.01), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10)
Short -NFLX short 181.40.
Added - AAPL at 428.80
Closed - RKUS stopped out 22.60 (-2)
Trade Ideas -
ENOC, GMED, MDRX, POWI, SRPT, TTWO
We continue to move higher slowly and steadily. Even the bad economic news from China last nigt wasn't enough to dither the indexes moving higher. SPY seems to be headed for new all time highs at 156.70. Its possible we may see a small pullback soon but we should definitely see new highs soon. I have high side target of 158-160 on SPY. Also watching the ascending trendline on 10min chart. Break of this could trendline could bring meaningful pullback but till then good idea to continue to play longs. Meanwhile, AAPL seems to have found a bottom. We broke key short term 435 resistance level. I have a short term target of 20sma on AAPL, which also coincides with the top end of descending wedge we've been in this downtrend.
Here are some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 156.70
Support - 155.20, 154.65, 153.25, 152.86, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70, BBRY (13.15), MBI (12.45), MCP (6.01), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10)
Short -NFLX short 181.40.
Added - AAPL at 428.80
Closed - RKUS stopped out 22.60 (-2)
Trade Ideas -
ENOC, GMED, MDRX, POWI, SRPT, TTWO
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
SPY - Are we there yet?
Daily Analysis -
Apologize for not posting last few days. Haven't been the best trading days for me as i was caught holding shorts expecting a deeper correction but market has been on a run. I was stopped out on most of my shorts, just holding VXX long. Added a few longs today but timeframe is very short. So where do we head next? I think the chart i posted back in early Feb on SPY roadmap is still in play. We have SPY all time high level of 156.70 in the range now and also measure move to about 158 level that could work out. Dollar continues to hold strong and could push higher to 22.65 level. Commodities are also in bearish pattern. With all these divergences, I'm still of the opinion the upside here is pretty limited so continue to hold very small positions.
Here are some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 154.65, 155.20, 156.70
Support - 153.25, 152.86, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70)
Short - RKUS (Holding from 20.60)
Added - BBRY (13.15), MBI (12.45), MCP (6.01), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10)
Trade Ideas -
GLD - looks ripe for a bounce
SPWR - Bull flag - entry over 12.69
AVT - Entry on strength/volume
VCLK - Watch for breakout
Apologize for not posting last few days. Haven't been the best trading days for me as i was caught holding shorts expecting a deeper correction but market has been on a run. I was stopped out on most of my shorts, just holding VXX long. Added a few longs today but timeframe is very short. So where do we head next? I think the chart i posted back in early Feb on SPY roadmap is still in play. We have SPY all time high level of 156.70 in the range now and also measure move to about 158 level that could work out. Dollar continues to hold strong and could push higher to 22.65 level. Commodities are also in bearish pattern. With all these divergences, I'm still of the opinion the upside here is pretty limited so continue to hold very small positions.
Here are some charts and levels to watch --
Resistance - 154.65, 155.20, 156.70
Support - 153.25, 152.86, 151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06
Holdings
Long - ARNA, VXX (23.70)
Short - RKUS (Holding from 20.60)
Added - BBRY (13.15), MBI (12.45), MCP (6.01), CLF (24.50), MELI (90.10)
Trade Ideas -
GLD - looks ripe for a bounce
SPWR - Bull flag - entry over 12.69
AVT - Entry on strength/volume
VCLK - Watch for breakout
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