Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 3/1/2013

Daily Analysis -
In last 3 trading days we pretty much reversed all the losses from Monday. Monday's high on SPY was 152.86, pretty much exactly where we topped out today. I was expecting some retracement from Monday's action but wasn't expecting a full 100% retracement. This bounce was primarily driven by Bernanke continuing to follow the line on QE, however the move higher so far had been on relatively low volume and Dollar has been flagging with no signs of weakness. Just to give you an idea here are daily volumes for this week -

Monday - 245M on huge selloff
Tuesday - 186M on bounce (about 75M was in first 2 hourly red candles)
Wednesday - 144M (about 30M in last 1/2 hr on downward pressure)
Thursday - ~75M until last hr, and then we saw another selloff with 42M shares.
 
As I mentioned in my previous post I was expecting sellers to come back into the market. There were signs of heavy selling in last hour yesterday and even heavier late in the day today which took out most of the days gains and some. We should see more weakness in coming days.

I unloaded all my longs, that I took for the tradable bounce, early in the morning session  and watched the market continue higher. I started few positions during the day including GOOG short and VXX long. Financials look tired so may take a swing short position in GS or MS depending on the action. GS has a nice gap-fill level around 136 that could be take reached if the market heads lower.

Here are some charts and levels to watch --

Resistance -  152.86, 153.25, 154.65, 155.20 
Support -   151.40, 150.45, 149.60, 149, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long -  ARNA, MHP 1/2, BRKR (stop breakeven 17.40)
Short - RKUS (Holding from 20.60)

Added 

• GOOG short (entry 803.76)
• VXX long (entry 23.33)
• TDS short (entry at 23).

Closed - 

• BBRY (+0.60), 
• HPQ (+0.50)
• MCP (loss 0.20)

Trade Ideas -
Mix of long and short setups for tomorrow -

YHOO - setting up nicely. Could continue higher if the market holds up.
GMCR- Should retest pre-earning highs of 49.
MENT - tried to breakout today. Will watch closely next few days.

USO - Looking to go short here.
 TTM - Below 26 could breakdown.

 

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/27/2013

Daily Analysis -
Fairly choppy action in the market as Dollar continued to move higher. Indexes ended in green but the underlying action was pretty weak  - call it dead cat bounce or late day rally in AAPL on rumors that it may announce a split at shareholders meeting tomorrow. Whatever the case, the sellers are expected to reappear soon with atleast 1-2 more distribution days in this correction. UUP is likely to fill the gap at 22.65 level which may coincide with my downside target of 147-148 level on this pullback. I closed most of my short positions and scalped a few long positions as we never confirmed below yesterday's low. I'm holding few overnight longs but will sell them early morning on any signs of strength. Will re-enter some of shorts if the market touches 151.40 level again.

I also got a fill on CF for my IRA account at 190.

Here are some charts and levels to watch --

Resistance - 150.45, 151.40,152.60, 153.25, 154.65, 155.20 
Support -   149.60, 148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long -  ARNA, MHP 1/2, 
Short - RKUS (entry 20.60)
Added - BBRY (entry 12.99), HPQ (entry 19.40) and MCP (entry 6.20)
Closed -  VXX (+3.12), ANGI (+0.50), SPWR 1/2 (+1), GWRE (+0.83), GOOG (+14)


Stopped out on PRLB long for 0.33 loss. Looking to reenter over 45.70 level on some volume.
HPQ looks nice. Should see 20s soon.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/26/2013

Daily Analysis -
Broad selloff in equities today on likely deadlock in  Italian general election with Berlusconi gaining some ground in the instant polls. The writing was on the walls for a selloff after the market gave up huge morning gains.  Hope you ended the day being on the right side of the trade :)

UUP broke out over the range i gave in the last post. It looks like it want to go higher which may mean more downside pressure on in US equities. Expect high volatility next few days and watch out for huge short covering rally if the news from Italy turns out to be better than expected. As I had advised in the last post, its better to watch the action from the sidelines from now and let the market settle down. If you want to play in this market scalping is the way to go. Stay nimble and take profits quickly.  There is a gap fill at SPY 147 area, won't be surprised if that gets filled sometime this week.

I just have a few short positions right now and am long VXX from Thursday. Tried a long trade in SFLY this morning expecting a breakout but was stopped out for a small loss.

Here are some charts and levels to watch --

Resistance - 149.60, 150.45, 151.40,152.60, 153.25, 154.65, 155.20 
Support -   148.42, 147.25, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long -  ARNA, MHP 1/2, VXX 
Short - ANGI, SPWR, GWRE, GOOG
Added - 
Closed -  MHP 1/2 at 46.50 (+2 gains)


Stopped out on SFLY long for 0.60 loss.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/21/2013

Daily Analysis -
Huge reversal day today. This is the one I had been patiently waiting for and avoiding being trapped into. As I had mentioned in my  last few posts I had trimmed down my positions significantly and was anxiously waiting for a pullback. Today's reversal was nastier than I thought it would be, but regardless it was good not be on the wrong side on this major down day. So why I was skeptical about the recent run up? If you noticed last few days commodities market took a hard hit. GLD and SLV charts are liking falling knife, Dollar has holding strong and finally the Housing stocks had started to look toppy. I had posted on 10th Feb that if UUP breaks 22.04 level, it could breakout and we would start to see SPY pullback, which is exactly what we saw today. We broke some key resistance level today including the all important 151.40. If we confirm below that tomorrow we are looking at pullback to 148-149 level soon. I would recommend staying mostly cash until 1) we see nice pullback and stability in the market, OR 2) Close over yesterday's highs. My VXX position is nicely in the money now. I sold 1/2 at 21.77, just as the Fed minutes came out ...a bad move in the hindsight :) Holding rest for now.

SPY levels
Resistance - 152.60, 153.25, 154.65, 155.20 
Support -  151.40, 150.40, 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06


Holdings
Long -  YPF, ARNA, MHP
Added -  RKUS short at 19.68
Closed -None

• Took long TSLA in the morning at 39.30 but got stopped out at 38.80.
• Holding RKUS short from 19.68.

New Trade Ideas
I'm looking for some short setups for tomorrow. Here are some ideas -

 

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/20/2013

Daily Analysis -
Markets continue to move higher. Nice move on all the indexes on merger news this morning. Move was strong even though the housing data wasn't as promising and overnight the Asian markets saw some declines. Seems like market wants to continue to make new highs for now. Lot of good looking setups still, so i guess it may be a good idea to keep playing them till they stop working. I do have some positions in VXX now which i opened at 22.37 and added today at 21.10.

SPY levels
Resistance - 154.65, 155.20 
Support - 152.60, 151.40, 150.40, 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06


Holdings
Long -  YPF, ARNA, MHP
Added - 
Closed - NTES, MENT

• Took profits early in the day on both NTES and MENT
• Scalped HLF long from 39. Closed 1/2 at 39.95 and second 1/2 at 40.25
• Scalped MM short from 14.48 to 14.31. It dropped like a rock on earnings A/H.

New Trade Ideas
Some of the setups from last night worked out very well - INFI was on fire today. BMRN had a nice open as well but gave up some of the gains. NTES and MENT worked well as well.

Here are some more setups to watch tomorrow.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/19/2013

Daily Analysis -
We continue to hold the pattern. Minor dips in the morning sessions followed by recovery in the afternoon. That said, Friday was a little different. While we ended only slightly negative on the day we saw huge volume especially given that we had one of the lightest volume week from Monday to Thursday or last week since 2007. Clearly that wasn't the case for Friday when saw about 200M shares traded for SPY.  Not sure what the reason was but it could've been potentially because 1) Chatter that some Walmart executive announced this was the weakest Feb in last so many years 2) G20 summit over the week, and lastly 3) we were heading into a long weekend. Whatever the reason, i personally think this week could be defining for future direction for the market. I honestly think we need a healthy pullback before we power higher to new highs on SPY. For now I remain mostly in cash and trading very short term.

SPY levels
Resistance - , 152.60, 153
Support - 151.40, 150.40, 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06


Holdings
Long -  YPF, ARNA, MHP
Added - MENT, NTES
Closed - NVDA

• Day traded UNXL from 19 to 19.50. UNXL looks set to make new highs but too volatile for my liking to take it as swing.

New Trade Ideas
Have a long list for this week

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/15/2013

Firstly, apologize for not posting last couple days. Got preoccupied with some important stuff.

Daily Analysis -
No cracks in the market yet. The range widened with a big gap down which was quickly bought and the SPY closed in green. Action overall was bullish but signs of some exhaustion. What we need to watch for is a sharp move up and quick reversal for a true reversal sign. For now I'm fairly neutral on the market having closed most of my swing positions earlier in the week. I'll just be looking for very short term positions for now, waiting for more directional movement in the market.

SPY levels
Resistance - , 152.60, 153
Support - 151.40, 150.40, 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Sector watch
Coal stocks got a nice bounce today. ANR BTU WLT JRCC all looking ripe. Watch KOL to move to $26 resistance level, till then you can use 2-3 swings in these stocks.

Holdings
Long -  YPF, NVDA, ARNA, MHP
Added - None
Closed - JCP, TNGO, SHLD, VALE, C

• Entered NILE this morning for 30.40 and sold it late in the day for 31.25.
• Closed my UPL position from yesterday for 0.50 loss.

New Trade Ideas
SINA - Nice looking pattern. Next resistance is 58.
REXI - Huge volume today. look for continuation.
WLT - Nice basing pattern. Could be a good swing.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/12/2014

Daily Analysis -
I'm keep the analysis short as we had a pretty uneventful day today with chop around in a tight range. No real news coming out this weekend. GLD sold off today basically on no major news. Financials still look good and until i see weakness in this sector, I'm still bullish on the market. Semis are acting very strong as well, may consider adding a name here if the sector stays strong. Finally, I'm starting see some divergences on RSI and Stochastics so its good to trade with caution and tight stops.

SPY levels
Resistance - , 152.35
Support - 151.40, 150.40, 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long -  JCP (1/3),  TNGO, YPF, NVDA, VALE, ARNA, MHP, SHLD
Added - C at 43.10
Closed -None

• No day trades today, although considered trading UNXL, which looks set for higher prices.
• MHP, NVDA bounced back nicely, while YPF dropped. Still holding YPF with stop at 16.

New Trade Ideas
CRUS - Go long on decent volume.
WFC - Another bank stock forming a nice bull flag.
SGI - Nice bull flag.

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/11/2013

Daily Analysis -
Nice  positive move on the indexes on Friday on continued strong corporate earnings and nice trade deficit data.  We finally moved above the range 149-151.40 we were stuck in for last couple weeks. We may go retest the150-151 levels again this week but for now the momentum points higher. I know there are lot of people looking for correction right now but i think this market may surprise those people atleast for a few more days if not weeks. Lets continue to play the setups while they are working. As I have stated before 149.50 is the key level, if we break that look for a larger pullback but till then buy on the dips. Keep an eye on Dollar and be mindful that is UUP breaks outs over 22.04 pullback market may be in trouble.

SPY levels
Resistance - , 152.35
Support - 151.40150.40, 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long -  JCP (1/3),  TNGO, YPF, NVDA, VALE, ARNA
Added - SHLD at 47.70
Closed -None

• Played EFX short ~$1 gain.
• Scalped TROX for a few cents again.
• Did a pair trade on AMZN short and AAPL long for +2.50 gain.
• New swing position in SHLD
• Entered HHS long at 7.62

New Trade Ideas


C -  Nice consolidation last few days. If financials stay strong this should see 50s.
LVS - Nice setup. Play strength in Casino stocks.
MENT - Nice C&H Pattern with expanding volume.
HHS - Flag forming. Should breakout higher.
DSX - Nice pattern. Recommended by one of the blog followers :)

Daily Analysis and Stock Ideas for 2/8/2013

Daily Analysis -
Another volatile day today with increasing volume. While we ended pretty close to yesterday's close the action was pretty wild in the morning with pretty decent volume. So far we seem to correcting on time with no major pullback. Markets have held up pretty well even with volatility with most of the moves coming on weakening Euro. We have a H&S breakdown failure (read post from 2/4) on the Dollar which is not good for the market. I suspect UUP may retest the $22 area and EURUSD may see the 50sma or bottom of the channel. This certainly is not good for the market. If we hold the channel and reverse from UUP $22 area we may see the continuation move on SPY. However if UUP breaks out over that we may see price correction on the SPY.

SPY levels
Resistance -  151.40, 152.35
Support - 150.40, 149.60, 148.42, 147.40, 146.30, 146, 145.60, 144.50, 144, 143.06

Holdings
Long -  JCP (1/3),  TNGO, YPF, NVDA, VALE, ARNA
Added - MHP to IRA account.
Closed -None

Chart Review


CENX - Still looking good.
INVN - Pulled back today. Still in play.
PKG - Bounced back pretty nicely. Ended in green.
SHLD - Pattern still intact.

New Trade Ideas
HGG - Bull flag
TROX - Nice volume today. Look for continuation.
SZYM -  Nice breakout
EFX - Short idea. Look for continuation